A selection panel that asks "what mark will it take to reach the final?" is implicitly assuming that question has a fairly stable answer - that recent history is a reasonable guide. That assumption holds much better for some events than others. This page measures, event by event, how much the mark it actually took to reach a final has moved around from one edition to the next, across 28 senior events (European Championships and Olympic/World Championships, both genders, sprints and hurdles up to 800m plus every jump and throw) over the last 26 years.
Events run at 1500m and beyond are deliberately excluded: those races are increasingly run tactically rather than off the clock, so "the mark it took to qualify" stops being a meaningful question in the same way.
How hard the qualifying mark is to predict depends enormously on the event. Shot (women's) swings around by roughly 6.2% of its typical level from one championships to the next - about 7.5 times as much as 110mH (men's), the steadiest event tested, which barely moves at all (around 0.8%). Recent history is a genuinely reliable guide in some events, and little better than a guess in others.
Throws are, on average, far more volatile - and so much harder to predict correctly - than sprints. Averaged across the events in each group, the throws swing by around 3.0% of their typical level between championships, the jumps by around 1.5%, and the sprints and hurdles up to 800m by only around 1.2%. Pole vault is the one jump that behaves like a throw on this measure, not like the other jumps.
Treating a volatile event's history as a reliable target can be genuinely dangerous. For a steady event, recent results really are a sound guide to what it will take to reach a final. For a volatile one, that same "look at recent history" method can amount to little more than a guess dressed up as a precise-looking number. If a selection panel then uses that guess to deselect an athlete who falls just short of a "national standard" built the same way, they are effectively ruling someone out on the strength of what is, for a volatile event, close to a random number. That is probably part of why some countries don't set a hard national standard at all, and why those that do often don't hold firm on it - waiving athletes through rather than enforcing a figure that history says could easily be wrong. See Predicting the qualifying mark (javelin) for exactly what that unreliability looks like, worked through in detail for one of the more volatile events on this page.
For each event and gender, this page takes every edition of the European Championships and the Olympic Games/World Championships since 1999, and records the mark it took to be among the best in the round before the final - the 8th-best mark for the timed events tested here (all finals in this set are run over 8 lanes), and the 12th-best for the jumps and throws (a field of 12 is standard). It then measures how much that mark varied, edition to edition, using the coefficient of variation - the standard deviation expressed as a percentage of the mean. Unlike a raw standard deviation, a coefficient of variation is comparable between a 100m time measured in hundredths of a second and a shot put distance measured in metres.
Combined events (decathlon, heptathlon) and relays are excluded - neither has a single "final" to reach in the same sense as an individual event. Events at 1500m and beyond are excluded because they are run tactically rather than off the clock.
Track (sprints/hurdles to 800m) Jumps Throws
| Discipline | Gender | Competition | Category | Editions | Mean | SD | Coefficient of variation | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shot | W | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 16.48m | 1.42m | 8.62% | 12.93m | 17.55m |
| Hammer | W | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 20 | 68.91m | 2.47m | 3.58% | 62.78m | 71.68m |
| Discus | W | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 57.17m | 2.03m | 3.55% | 53.60m | 60.65m |
| PV | W | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 20 | 4.48m | 0.11m | 2.44% | 4.25m | 4.65m |
| Hammer | W | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 67.00m | 1.62m | 2.42% | 63.38m | 68.66m |
| Javelin | W | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 57.41m | 1.27m | 2.20% | 55.20m | 59.29m |
| Javelin | M | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 80.79m | 1.76m | 2.17% | 77.08m | 83.57m |
| Hammer | M | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 74.03m | 1.58m | 2.14% | 72.55m | 77.78m |
| Shot | M | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 20.16m | 0.41m | 2.02% | 19.72m | 20.92m |
| PV | M | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 5.51m | 0.11m | 2.00% | 5.30m | 5.65m |
| Javelin | W | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 60.18m | 1.11m | 1.84% | 58.42m | 62.29m |
| Javelin | M | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 78.92m | 1.37m | 1.73% | 76.69m | 80.70m |
| LJ | W | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 6.51m | 0.11m | 1.66% | 6.35m | 6.63m |
| Discus | M | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 62.01m | 1.03m | 1.65% | 59.87m | 63.74m |
| Shot | W | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 18.10m | 0.29m | 1.59% | 17.73m | 18.59m |
| Discus | W | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 61.00m | 0.96m | 1.58% | 59.30m | 62.65m |
| PV | M | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 5.64m | 0.09m | 1.54% | 5.45m | 5.75m |
| PV | W | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 4.38m | 0.07m | 1.52% | 4.30m | 4.50m |
| HJ | M | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 2.21m | 0.03m | 1.31% | 2.15m | 2.25m |
| 400mH | W | European Championships | Track | 9 | 55.77s | 0.70s | 1.26% | 54.66s | 56.91s |
| TJ | M | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 16.47m | 0.20m | 1.24% | 16.07m | 16.76m |
| LJ | M | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 7.84m | 0.10m | 1.24% | 7.71m | 7.98m |
| Hammer | M | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 75.25m | 0.91m | 1.21% | 73.47m | 76.72m |
| Discus | M | Olympic + World Championships | Throw | 21 | 62.88m | 0.75m | 1.20% | 61.69m | 64.99m |
| 400m | W | European Championships | Track | 9 | 51.87s | 0.59s | 1.14% | 51.14s | 52.56s |
| TJ | W | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 14.11m | 0.15m | 1.08% | 13.82m | 14.56m |
| TJ | W | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 13.89m | 0.15m | 1.07% | 13.67m | 14.08m |
| 200m | W | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 22.63s | 0.24s | 1.06% | 22.08s | 23.13s |
| 400mH | M | European Championships | Track | 9 | 49.52s | 0.52s | 1.05% | 48.75s | 50.33s |
| LJ | W | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 6.57m | 0.07m | 1.03% | 6.38m | 6.68m |
| 100m | W | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 11.10s | 0.11s | 1.02% | 10.96s | 11.34s |
| HJ | W | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 1.92m | 0.02m | 0.97% | 1.88m | 1.95m |
| HJ | W | European Championships | Jump | 9 | 1.89m | 0.02m | 0.96% | 1.87m | 1.92m |
| 100mH | W | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 12.72s | 0.12s | 0.95% | 12.50s | 12.87s |
| 200m | W | European Championships | Track | 9 | 23.14s | 0.21s | 0.90% | 22.84s | 23.55s |
| Shot | M | European Championships | Throw | 9 | 19.67m | 0.17m | 0.87% | 19.42m | 19.91m |
| 100m | W | European Championships | Track | 9 | 11.31s | 0.10s | 0.87% | 11.13s | 11.42s |
| 400mH | W | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 54.68s | 0.47s | 0.87% | 53.83s | 55.30s |
| 200m | M | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 20 | 20.29s | 0.17s | 0.86% | 19.98s | 20.65s |
| 100m | M | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 10.07s | 0.08s | 0.79% | 9.93s | 10.20s |
| 800m | W | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 1:59.57 | 0.93s | 0.77% | 1:57.79 | 2:01.24 |
| TJ | M | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 16.75m | 0.13m | 0.77% | 16.60m | 17.11m |
| 400m | M | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 44.95s | 0.35s | 0.77% | 44.41s | 45.78s |
| 200m | M | European Championships | Track | 9 | 20.63s | 0.16s | 0.77% | 20.39s | 20.84s |
| HJ | M | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 2.27m | 0.02m | 0.71% | 2.24m | 2.29m |
| 800m | M | European Championships | Track | 9 | 1:47.37 | 0.75s | 0.70% | 1:46.00 | 1:48.27 |
| 110mH | M | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 13.36s | 0.09s | 0.69% | 13.22s | 13.56s |
| 400m | W | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 50.64s | 0.35s | 0.69% | 49.87s | 51.18s |
| 100mH | W | European Championships | Track | 9 | 12.96s | 0.09s | 0.68% | 12.83s | 13.13s |
| LJ | M | Olympic + World Championships | Jump | 21 | 7.95m | 0.05m | 0.66% | 7.85m | 8.05m |
| 800m | W | European Championships | Track | 9 | 2:01.31 | 0.78s | 0.64% | 2:00.35 | 2:02.55 |
| 400m | M | European Championships | Track | 9 | 45.60s | 0.29s | 0.63% | 45.17s | 46.01s |
| 100m | M | European Championships | Track | 9 | 10.25s | 0.06s | 0.61% | 10.16s | 10.35s |
| 800m | M | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 1:45.23 | 0.63s | 0.60% | 1:43.84 | 1:46.36 |
| 110mH | M | European Championships | Track | 9 | 13.50s | 0.08s | 0.59% | 13.39s | 13.63s |
| 400mH | M | Olympic + World Championships | Track | 21 | 48.59s | 0.28s | 0.57% | 48.01s | 49.13s |
SD of a time-based event is shown as a duration for readability, but the coefficient of variation - the figure that is actually comparable across events - is computed from the underlying millisecond values, not from the rounded display figures.
This page runs one live query, cached for a week. For each athlete in each competition/event/gender, it finds their mark from the last round they took part in before the final, choosing the round by date rather than assuming a fixed round name (round structure varies by event and has changed over the 26 years covered). It then ranks those marks and takes the 8th-best (timed events) or 12th-best (jumps and throws) as that edition's cutoff mark.
An earlier version of this query instead matched each pre-final mark to the athletes who actually started the final, and took the worst mark among them. That is a more literal definition of "the mark it took to qualify", and it is the method used on the javelin prediction page - but it takes a single worst-case mark, which real championship rules can put a long way from the level of a normal qualifier. One 2009 case surfaced during testing: in the men's 800m at the Berlin World Championships, a chain-reaction fall in a semifinal took down three athletes, and two of them were reinstated to the final on protest despite recording, legitimately, one of the slowest semifinal times of the round. That is a genuine result, not a data error - but a rare rules-driven outcome like it is still enough to distort an entire event's volatility figure when the method used is "the single worst mark among the finalists". Ranking by position within the round is not affected by a single such case, at the cost of being an approximation of the final cutoff rather than an exact reproduction of it.
Qualifying/semifinal mark and event metadata:
WITH prefinal AS (
SELECT cr.competitionId, cr.eventId, cr.gender, cr.aaId, cr.date, cr.race,
cr.mark_distance, cr.mark_time_ms,
ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
PARTITION BY cr.competitionId, cr.eventId, cr.aaId
ORDER BY cr.date DESC,
CASE cr.race
WHEN 'Semifinal - Heat' THEN 1
WHEN 'Repechage Round - Heat' THEN 2
WHEN 'Quarterfinal - Heat' THEN 3
WHEN 'Round 1 - Heat' THEN 4
WHEN 'Qualification - Group' THEN 5
WHEN 'Combined - Group' THEN 6
WHEN 'Preliminary Round - Heat' THEN 7
ELSE 8
END
) AS rn
FROM athletics_wa_competition_results cr
WHERE cr.race <> 'Final'
AND cr.eventId IN (10229630,10229605,10229631,10229501,10229611,10229612,10229615,10229616,10229617,10229618,10229619,10229620,10229621,10229636,10229509,10229510,10229511,10229512,10229522,10229523,10229526,10229527,10229528,10229529,10229530,10229531,10229532,10229533)
AND (cr.mark_distance IS NOT NULL OR cr.mark_time_ms IS NOT NULL)
),
lastRound AS (
SELECT * FROM prefinal WHERE rn = 1
),
ranked AS (
SELECT lr.competitionId, lr.eventId, lr.gender, e.markType, e.event_short,
lr.mark_distance, lr.mark_time_ms,
ROW_NUMBER() OVER (
PARTITION BY lr.competitionId, lr.eventId, lr.gender
ORDER BY CASE WHEN e.markType = 'Distance' THEN lr.mark_distance END DESC,
CASE WHEN e.markType = 'Time' THEN lr.mark_time_ms END ASC
) AS fieldRank
FROM lastRound lr
JOIN athletics_wa_events e ON e.eventId = lr.eventId
)
SELECT c.type AS ChampType, YEAR(c.startDate) AS Year, r.eventId AS EventID,
r.event_short AS Discipline, r.gender AS Gender, r.markType AS MarkType,
r.mark_distance AS Distance_m, r.mark_time_ms AS Time_ms
FROM ranked r
JOIN athletics_wa_competitions c ON c.competitionId = r.competitionId
WHERE c.type IN ('E', 'O+W')
AND ((r.markType = 'Distance' AND r.fieldRank = 12) OR (r.markType = 'Time' AND r.fieldRank = 8))
ORDER BY r.eventId, r.gender, Year;